Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007
 
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS IMPROVING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND T-NUMBERS
ARE NOW 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES
AND I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES TO DETERMINE IF
THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DEEMED A TROPICAL STORM.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN
IS STEERING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD TURN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE DEPRESSION
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING
TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AS THE
SHALLOWER CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
ONLY THE UKMET IS COUNTER TO THIS SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DISCOUNTS THIS MODEL AND MAKES A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING THE
DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS TO INTENSITY BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STABLE. AMAZINGLY...THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE
SYSTEM TO ABOUT 40 KT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...AND THE HWRF MODEL
WEAKENS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. THERE IS NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT LEAST A
LITTLE IN THE AVAILABLE WINDOW...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR SO...AND FUTURE
FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CALL FOR QUICKER DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 15.3N 111.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.9N 113.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.9N 115.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.7N 115.8W    40 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
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