ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007 800 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007 ONE LONELY CELL OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THIS IS THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME. DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF COOL SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR NO REDEVELOPMENT AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HR...AND THIS WILL OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME SHORTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGE...AND HWRF MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS AND TURNS THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND THEN EAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEARS THE CYCLONE AND REVERSES THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET...WHICH APPEARS TO MAINTAIN TOO STRONG A VORTEX AND IS AN OUTLIER FAR TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK FORECAST DOES PROSCRIBE A SMALL LOOP FOR THE DEPRESSION...SIMILAR TO BUT QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 130.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 130.6W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC