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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007
800 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007
 
ONE LONELY CELL OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
AND THIS IS THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.  DESPITE VERTICAL
SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
COOL SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD
THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR NO
REDEVELOPMENT AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HR...AND THIS
WILL OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME SHORTLY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGE...AND HWRF
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 5 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS AND TURNS THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND THEN EAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEARS THE CYCLONE AND REVERSES THE LOWER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET...WHICH APPEARS TO MAINTAIN TOO STRONG A
VORTEX AND IS AN OUTLIER FAR TO THE WEST.  THIS TRACK FORECAST DOES
PROSCRIBE A SMALL LOOP FOR THE DEPRESSION...SIMILAR TO BUT QUICKER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 17.9N 130.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 130.6W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC