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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
LORETO         34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 216N 1125W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 216N 1125W 50  9   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 216N 1125W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 223N 1120W 34 39  16(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   1(58)
 24 223N 1120W 50  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 223N 1120W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 228N 1115W 34  7  20(27)   5(32)   2(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 36 228N 1115W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 228N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 233N 1109W 34  1   8( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 48 233N 1109W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 48 233N 1109W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 240N 1100W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 72 240N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 240N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 245N 1095W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 96 245N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 245N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 255N 1095W 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
120 255N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 255N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     40      35      30      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC