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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   X( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   2(17)   X(17)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 208N 1132W 34 95   1(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 208N 1132W 50 61   5(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 12 208N 1132W 64 11   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 24 216N 1129W 34 54  19(73)   3(76)   1(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 24 216N 1129W 50 10  21(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 24 216N 1129W 64  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 223N 1126W 34 10  35(45)  10(55)   3(58)   2(60)   X(60)   1(61)
 36 223N 1126W 50  1   9(10)   6(16)   1(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 36 223N 1126W 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 230N 1122W 34  1  18(19)  16(35)   5(40)   4(44)   1(45)   X(45)
 48 230N 1122W 50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 230N 1122W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 240N 1115W 34  1   2( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   5(22)   2(24)   X(24)
 72 240N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 240N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 250N 1110W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 96 250N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 96 250N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 260N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
120 260N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
120 260N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     55      50      45      40      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC