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Hurricane IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   2( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   5(20)   2(22)   X(22)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   1( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   5(17)   2(19)   1(20)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   7(21)   3(24)   X(24)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   1(16)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 204N 1134W 34 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 204N 1134W 50 68   5(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 204N 1134W 64  7   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 24 213N 1131W 34 51  24(75)   6(81)   1(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 213N 1131W 50 12  27(39)   5(44)   1(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 213N 1131W 64  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 36 221N 1128W 34  7  40(47)  15(62)   4(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 36 221N 1128W 50  1  13(14)  11(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 36 221N 1128W 64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 230N 1125W 34  2  17(19)  21(40)   9(49)   5(54)   2(56)   X(56)
 48 230N 1125W 50  X   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 48 230N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 245N 1120W 34  1   2( 3)   8(11)  10(21)   9(30)   4(34)   X(34)
 72 245N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 245N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 260N 1115W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   7(13)   4(17)   1(18)
 96 260N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 260N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 275N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
120 275N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 275N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     60      60      55      50      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC