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Hurricane IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   8(23)   3(26)   2(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   9(21)   2(23)   2(25)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)  11(22)   4(26)   1(27)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   2(18)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   3(14)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   2(16)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   2(14)   1(15)   1(16)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  4   5( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 199N 1135W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 199N 1135W 50 73   5(78)   1(79)   X(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 12 199N 1135W 64 22   8(30)   X(30)   X(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
 24 208N 1132W 34 58  26(84)   4(88)   1(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 24 208N 1132W 50 18  32(50)   5(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 208N 1132W 64  1  13(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 36 215N 1129W 34 13  46(59)  10(69)   4(73)   2(75)   1(76)   1(77)
 36 215N 1129W 50  2  22(24)  10(34)   3(37)   1(38)   X(38)   1(39)
 36 215N 1129W 64  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 223N 1125W 34  2  27(29)  18(47)   8(55)   5(60)   3(63)   1(64)
 48 223N 1125W 50  X   5( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 48 223N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 240N 1120W 34  1   3( 4)   9(13)  10(23)  11(34)   5(39)   1(40)
 72 240N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 240N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
 96 255N 1115W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)  10(16)   4(20)   2(22)
 96 255N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 96 255N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 270N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)
120 270N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 270N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      65      60      55      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC