Hurricane IVO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
2100 UTC THU SEP 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)  12(23)   4(27)   X(27)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)  12(21)   4(25)   X(25)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)  11(18)   4(22)   2(24)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  4  11(15)   8(23)   3(26)   3(29)   1(30)   1(31)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 16  13(29)   5(34)   3(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ISLA CLARION   50  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 185N 1133W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 185N 1133W 50 69   7(76)   2(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 185N 1133W 64 22   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
 24 195N 1132W 34 54  28(82)   5(87)   2(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 24 195N 1132W 50 13  37(50)   6(56)   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 195N 1132W 64  1  13(14)   5(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 36 204N 1129W 34  7  45(52)  17(69)   4(73)   3(76)   X(76)   1(77)
 36 204N 1129W 50  1  16(17)  16(33)   4(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 36 204N 1129W 64  X   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 48 212N 1125W 34  2  20(22)  27(49)   8(57)   8(65)   1(66)   X(66)
 48 212N 1125W 50  X   3( 3)  14(17)   6(23)   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 212N 1125W 64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 229N 1118W 34  1   2( 3)  10(13)  12(25)  14(39)   4(43)   X(43)
 72 229N 1118W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 72 229N 1118W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 245N 1115W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)  12(19)   4(23)   1(24)
 96 245N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 96 245N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 265N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
120 265N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 265N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      70      65      60      50      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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