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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   2(15)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   7(13)   6(19)  11(30)   3(33)   1(34)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1  13(14)  32(46)  13(59)  11(70)   1(71)   1(72)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   2( 2)  14(16)  10(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 159N 1121W 34 88   5(93)   1(94)   X(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 159N 1121W 50 49  17(66)   2(68)   X(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 12 159N 1121W 64 19  10(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
 24 168N 1132W 34 17  57(74)   9(83)   2(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 24 168N 1132W 50  1  38(39)  11(50)   2(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 24 168N 1132W 64  X  18(18)   6(24)   2(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
 36 177N 1139W 34  2  40(42)  25(67)   6(73)   5(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 36 177N 1139W 50  X  10(10)  22(32)   8(40)   3(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 36 177N 1139W 64  X   3( 3)  12(15)   3(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 186N 1140W 34  1  14(15)  34(49)  13(62)   9(71)   2(73)   X(73)
 48 186N 1140W 50  X   2( 2)  14(16)  10(26)   7(33)   1(34)   1(35)
 48 186N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 205N 1130W 34  X   3( 3)   8(11)  12(23)  22(45)   6(51)   1(52)
 72 205N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   X(19)
 72 205N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 215N 1115W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)  18(25)   9(34)   2(36)
 96 215N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 96 215N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 220N 1100W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)   7(19)   3(22)
120 220N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
120 220N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     70      75      75      70      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC