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Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  19(37)  12(49)   3(52)   X(52)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 152N 1110W 34 26  23(49)   2(51)   1(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 152N 1110W 50  8   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 12 152N 1110W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 160N 1127W 34  X  36(36)  19(55)   3(58)   2(60)   1(61)   X(61)
 24 160N 1127W 50  X  12(12)  10(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 160N 1127W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 170N 1140W 34  X   4( 4)  40(44)  10(54)   4(58)   2(60)   X(60)
 36 170N 1140W 50  X   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)   3(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 36 170N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
 48 180N 1145W 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  18(43)  10(53)   2(55)   X(55)
 48 180N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 48 180N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 195N 1145W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  14(20)  17(37)   3(40)   X(40)
 72 195N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 72 195N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 205N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  16(26)   5(31)   X(31)
 96 205N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 96 205N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 215N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   6(21)   1(22)
120 215N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
120 215N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      60      60      60      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC