Hurricane IVO

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HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IVO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  65SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  90SE  75SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  65SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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