ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF ONLY A BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...RESULTANT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 65 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES IVO SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TRACK A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDN STALL THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS. HOWEVER IF THE CURRENT BURST OF CONVECTION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IVO COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. ALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 112.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.9N 112.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.4N 111.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 110.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 24.2N 109.8W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 109.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC