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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007               
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  11(18)   2(20)   X(20)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2  32(34)  27(61)   6(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   5( 5)  17(22)   5(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2  26(28)  24(52)   6(58)   3(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   8( 9)  26(35)  15(50)   7(57)   1(58)   X(58)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)  21(41)   2(43)   X(43)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)   X(17)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  18(23)   3(26)   X(26)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)  14(23)   2(25)   X(25)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  1   5( 6)   6(12)   9(21)   6(27)   1(28)   X(28)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   6( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  4   6(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 202N 1086W 34 89   7(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 202N 1086W 50 43  18(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 12 202N 1086W 64  6   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 24 214N 1098W 34 12  65(77)  10(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 214N 1098W 50  1  35(36)  13(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 24 214N 1098W 64  X  12(12)   6(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 36 227N 1107W 34  2  29(31)  35(66)   8(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 36 227N 1107W 50  X   5( 5)  23(28)   8(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 36 227N 1107W 64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 48 243N 1113W 34  1   6( 7)  23(30)  21(51)  11(62)   1(63)   X(63)
 48 243N 1113W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 48 243N 1113W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 280N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)   3(25)   X(25)
 72 280N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 280N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 320N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 96 320N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 320N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     70      75      70      50      25       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC