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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   5(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   2(18)   1(19)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   8(28)   2(30)   1(31)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   6(26)   1(27)   1(28)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1  13(14)  12(26)   2(28)   2(30)   1(31)   X(31)
L CARDENAS     50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1  17(18)   4(22)   3(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ACAPULCO       34  9   4(13)   X(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
P MALDONADO    34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)   2(21)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   5(20)   1(21)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 160N 1005W 34 35  16(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 160N 1005W 50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 160N 1005W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 169N 1021W 34  1  33(34)   9(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 169N 1021W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 169N 1021W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 178N 1037W 34  X   7( 7)  23(30)  10(40)   4(44)   1(45)   X(45)
 36 178N 1037W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 178N 1037W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 185N 1053W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  17(27)  11(38)   2(40)   1(41)
 48 185N 1053W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 185N 1053W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 195N 1080W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  21(27)  10(37)   2(39)
 72 195N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 72 195N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 215N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   4(27)
 96 215N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 96 215N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 235N 1125W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
120 235N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 235N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      55      65      70      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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