ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007 WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE. DESPITE VERY WARM WATERS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS DISRUPTED THE INNER CORE AND THE CYCLONE HAS A NARROWING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR SO. HENRIETTE IS TURNING NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 360/10. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 26.0N 110.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 28.0N 109.8W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1200Z 30.7N 108.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC