Hurricane HENRIETTE

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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
 
WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE. DESPITE VERY
WARM WATERS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS
DISRUPTED THE INNER CORE AND THE CYCLONE HAS A NARROWING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG
THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.  ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED IN A DAY OR SO.
 
HENRIETTE IS TURNING NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT
360/10. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. WHILE IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 26.0N 110.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.0N 109.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 30.7N 108.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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