ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR SAN JOSE DEL CABO AROUND 2030 UTC. DVORAK INTENSITY WERE 75 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO FILL AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME RAGGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 345/9. A NORTHWARD TURN WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO HENRIETTE'S FORECAST SHORT DURATION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS UNCLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL BE DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. HENRIETTE SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ONCE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.1N 109.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 24.4N 110.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 26.3N 110.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 110.6W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 110.1W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC