Hurricane HENRIETTE

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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
HENRIETTE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING WITH A DISTINCT EYE
NOW APPARENT IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM CABO SAN LUCAS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.  
 
HENRIETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 335/9.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD 
WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEN CROSSING THE SEA
OF CORTEZ AND REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WHILE THE GFDL IS SURPRISINGLY LOCATED TOWARD
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND REPRESENTS ONLY
A SMALL CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   
 
THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
AS HENRIETTE HAS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OVER WATER PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
THEREAFTER...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ULTIMATELY THE HIGHLY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  HENRIETTE'S SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ONCE INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3 DAYS.

SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS WERE REQUIRED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 22.2N 109.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.6N 110.1W    65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N 110.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 27.4N 110.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.2N 110.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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