ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST THAT A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED THIS EVENING WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WARMING SINCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SAMPLED THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 65 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6....WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THEY HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE GFDL...UKMET AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE THE LONG-TERM MEAN NHC TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 55 N MI AT 24 HOURS AND 80 N MI AT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH HENRIETTE HAS REFUSED TO DO SO DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER... WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 20.6N 108.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 21.6N 109.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 23.2N 110.1W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA 36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.9N 110.7W 55 KT...NEAR EAST COAST BAJA 48HR VT 06/0000Z 26.7N 110.8W 55 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF 72HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 109.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC