Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HENRIETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST
THAT A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED THIS EVENING WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WARMING SINCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SAMPLED THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 65 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY...THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6....WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
48 HOURS...BUT THEY HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE
GFDL...UKMET AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC
FORECAST INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE MAKING A
FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE THE
LONG-TERM MEAN NHC TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 55 N MI AT 24 HOURS AND 80
N MI AT 36 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING EVEN
THOUGH HENRIETTE HAS REFUSED TO DO SO DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER... WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 20.6N 108.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.6N 109.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N 110.1W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.9N 110.7W    55 KT...NEAR EAST COAST BAJA
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 26.7N 110.8W    55 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N 109.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC