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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION DEPICTS A BIT OF A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN THE BANDING
FEATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...AND
BASED ON THE RECENT LESS IMPRESSIVE BANDING STRUCTURE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.  THE INTENSITY MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24-36
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPER
ENSEMBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A MAXIMUM
FORECAST INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 310/8...A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ARE SUGGESTING A TURN
NORTHWARD PLACING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS...THEN CONTINUING
ON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH THE SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. 
AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 19.4N 107.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N 108.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 21.4N 109.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.7N 110.7W    75 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N 111.3W    70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N 111.5W    50 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N 110.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
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