ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING. DESPITE GOOD BANDING FEATURES...THE OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. IT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY AS TO WHY HENRIETTE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 85 KT IN 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF HENRIETTE MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND COULD REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. THE FORWARD MOTION OF HENRIETTE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4. HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 140 DEGREES WEST. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON RE-CURVING THE CYCLONE OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST SOLUTION...AS IT KEEPS HENRIETTE JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 18.9N 107.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 19.5N 107.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 110.7W 75 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 72HR VT 06/0000Z 27.0N 111.0W 55 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ 96HR VT 07/0000Z 32.0N 110.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC