ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007 NOW THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT SHAPE. THE CENTER IS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND WITHIN SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE FEATURE. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SUPPORTING A HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE..HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH CONTINUES TO BE 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNANIMOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE HIGH ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE... HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO MEXICO. ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC