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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS AROUND -80C MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...
BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER IT IS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 45
KT...AND A 0128 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 45 KT.  SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT.  THE INITIAL WIND
RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON THE QSCAT PASS. 

THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
WARM FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST UNTIL HENRIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE INTERACTION
THAT HENRIETTE HAS WITH LAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD HINDER
INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FURTHER OFFSHORE
THAN FORECAST HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A STRONGER HURRICANE AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...AND THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHEN THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. 
THE GFDN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS OPT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HWRF...GFS...AND
NOGAPS MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION LONGER AND KEEP THE
CYCLONE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 17.4N 103.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.1N 104.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N 107.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N 109.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 25.0N 115.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC