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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG BUT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION APPARENTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  DATA FROM A RECENT WINDSAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT A SMALL
VORTEX MAY BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION NEAR THE
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS THE PRIMARY CENTER OR A
FEATURE ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERWARD TO NORTHWESTERWARD TRACK
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO  THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN TRACKS THAT BRING
THE CENTER ONSHORE AND SOME THAT KEEP IT OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER
96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO
WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS IN HOW IT
WEAKENS.  THIS WEAKENING COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
MORE NORTHWARD...AND THUS A SLIGHT RIGHT TURN IS SHOW BETWEEN
96-120 HR.

THE FUTURE INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HR WILL MAINLY BE DETERMINED BY
PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL
BRUSH THE COAST...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.  IF THE
DEPRESSION MOVES RIGHT OF THE TRACK...IT COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND
DISSIPATE AS SHOW BY THE HWRF MODEL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IF IT
STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  EVEN
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM LAND
TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING BY 72-96 HR...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND THAT TIME.  BY 120 HR...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATER THAT SHOULD STOP
INTENSIFICATION.

IF THE VORTEX SEEN IN THE WINDSAT DATA IS THE PRIMARY CENTER...THE
FORECAST TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ON LATER
ADVISORIES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 14.7N  98.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.4N  98.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.4N 100.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 17.2N 101.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N 103.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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