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Tropical Storm GIL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 189N 1168W 34 36  16(52)   X(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 189N 1168W 50  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 189N 1168W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 189N 1189W 34  X  26(26)  12(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 24 189N 1189W 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 189N 1189W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 189N 1210W 34  X   2( 2)  22(24)   8(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 36 189N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 36 189N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 192N 1232W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 48 192N 1232W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 192N 1232W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 199N 1275W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 72 199N 1275W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 199N 1275W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 205N 1315W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 96 205N 1315W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 205N 1315W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 205N 1355W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 205N 1355W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 205N 1355W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     40      40      35      35      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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