ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007 WHILE GIL CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER...THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HR...AND THE CONVECTION IS FARTHER FROM THE NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE OVERALL WEAKENED APPEARANCE...GIL IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8. GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF GIL BY 72 HR...WHICH FILLS THEREAFTER. THIS WOULD ALLOW GIL TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A SOMEWHAT SPREAD GUIDANCE SUITE. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR GIL TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH THE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 24C BY 48 HR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GIL TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.6N 119.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.7N 120.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.5N 124.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 19.9N 126.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC