ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI AND AMSU-B...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTH- EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD TOPS AROUND -80C. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. GIL IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM BETWEEN 26C AND 27C...MODERATE SHEAR COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS... GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 270/11. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER GIL ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...GIL SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.4N 113.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.4N 114.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 19.4N 116.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 121.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC