Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED
BANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF 2.0...30 KT...WAS RECEIVED FROM TAFB
AND SHIP ZQCP3 ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1002.6 MB. DATA FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY SITE AT SOCORRO ISLAND HELPED TO DETERMINE THE
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THIS
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM
TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A LARGE
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.  THIS STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AWAY FROM MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 19.4N 109.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.8N 110.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N 112.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC