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Hurricane FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12               
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 145W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 145W       34  X  20(20)  31(51)   3(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)
15N 145W       50  X   3( 3)  17(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
15N 145W       64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   7(26)   1(27)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 129N 1418W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 129N 1418W 50 82   9(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 129N 1418W 64 47  19(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 
 24 133N 1439W 34  4  81(85)   7(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 133N 1439W 50  X  57(57)  14(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 24 133N 1439W 64  X  33(33)  12(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
 36 137N 1460W 34  X  17(17)  54(71)  10(81)   3(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 36 137N 1460W 50  X   4( 4)  38(42)  12(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 36 137N 1460W 64  X   1( 1)  19(20)   7(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 48 141N 1481W 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  31(56)  15(71)   1(72)   X(72)
 48 141N 1481W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  22(28)  10(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 48 141N 1481W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 155N 1525W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   8(40)   1(41)
 72 155N 1525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 72 155N 1525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 170N 1565W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)
 96 170N 1565W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 170N 1565W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 185N 1600W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
120 185N 1600W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 185N 1600W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    115    105      95      85      70      55      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC