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Hurricane FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11               
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 145W       34  X   8( 8)  43(51)   6(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
15N 145W       50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
15N 145W       64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   8(28)   1(29)
BUOY 50004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
BUOY 50002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 129N 1411W 34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 129N 1411W 50 64  17(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 12 129N 1411W 64 36  19(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
 24 133N 1434W 34  1  81(82)   9(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 133N 1434W 50  X  49(49)  15(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 24 133N 1434W 64  X  24(24)  13(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 138N 1456W 34  X  11(11)  57(68)  13(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 138N 1456W 50  X   2( 2)  35(37)  13(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 36 138N 1456W 64  X   1( 1)  16(17)   8(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
 48 144N 1480W 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  37(54)  16(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 48 144N 1480W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   9(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 48 144N 1480W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 
 72 155N 1525W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   8(40)   1(41)
 72 155N 1525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 72 155N 1525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 170N 1560W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   2(19)
 96 170N 1560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 96 170N 1560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 185N 1590W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
120 185N 1590W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 185N 1590W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    105    105      95      85      70      60      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC