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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007               
0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   2(15)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 133N 1313W 34 46  16(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 12 133N 1313W 50 13   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 12 133N 1313W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 133N 1338W 34  X  50(50)  16(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 24 133N 1338W 50  X  19(19)  12(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 133N 1338W 64  X   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 36 135N 1360W 34  X   4( 4)  47(51)  10(61)   2(63)   1(64)   X(64)
 36 135N 1360W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)   7(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 135N 1360W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 135N 1380W 34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  24(39)  11(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 48 135N 1380W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 135N 1380W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 140N 1420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   6(28)   1(29)
 72 140N 1420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 72 140N 1420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 145N 1460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)
 96 145N 1460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 145N 1460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 160N 1500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
120 160N 1500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 160N 1500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     60      65      60      50      45      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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