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Tropical Storm ERICK


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007               
0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 134N 1315W 34 43   5(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 12 134N 1315W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 134N 1315W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 135N 1335W 34  X  32(32)  10(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 135N 1335W 50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 135N 1335W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 138N 1352W 34  X   4( 4)  28(32)   9(41)   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 36 138N 1352W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 138N 1352W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 142N 1371W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   9(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 48 142N 1371W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 142N 1371W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 145N 1410W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)   1(25)
 72 145N 1410W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 72 145N 1410W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 145N 1450W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)
 96 145N 1450W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 145N 1450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 145N 1490W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
120 145N 1490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 145N 1490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      45      40      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC