Tropical Storm ERICK

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007               
0300 UTC WED AUG 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 131N 1259W 34 24   6(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 12 131N 1259W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 131N 1259W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 135N 1282W 34  1  20(21)   9(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 24 135N 1282W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 135N 1282W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 135N 1305W 34  X   2( 2)  18(20)   8(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 36 135N 1305W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 135N 1305W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 135N 1325W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   7(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 48 135N 1325W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 135N 1325W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 135N 1365W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   2(21)
 72 135N 1365W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 72 135N 1365W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 135N 1400W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)
 96 135N 1400W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 96 135N 1400W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 135N 1445W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
120 135N 1445W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
120 135N 1445W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      35      40      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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