ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 200 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON ERICK...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAKENING CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 35 KT TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND PERSISTS. GIVEN THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 28C...SOME STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES. HOWEVER...SSTS START APPROACHING 26C IN 48 HOURS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ANY STRENGTHENING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING. BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR ABOUT 285/9. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL DEPTH...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND NORTHWARD AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA THAT INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.2N 131.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 133.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 136.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 15.0N 139.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC