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Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007               
2100 UTC MON JUL 23 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  12(30)   8(38)   X(38)   1(39)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  12(20)   3(23)   X(23)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 161N 1099W 34 23  27(50)   3(53)   1(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 12 161N 1099W 50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 161N 1099W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 172N 1107W 34  1  31(32)  14(46)   5(51)   3(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 24 172N 1107W 50  X   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 24 172N 1107W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 180N 1114W 34  X   9( 9)  26(35)  11(46)   6(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 36 180N 1114W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 180N 1114W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 188N 1121W 34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  16(34)  13(47)   1(48)   1(49)
 48 188N 1121W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 48 188N 1121W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 205N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  23(30)   6(36)   1(37)
 72 205N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 205N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 223N 1163W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   1(17)
 96 223N 1163W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 96 223N 1163W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 240N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
120 240N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 240N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      55      45      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN