ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 800 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NORTHERN HALF IS ALREADY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS WHICH PREVAIL NORTH OF 20 NORTH. IN FACT...LATEST SST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS IN THAT REGION. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE PORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. DALILA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND DALILA BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN SHOWING THE WESTWARD TURN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.7N 111.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 20.6N 112.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 22.3N 115.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC