ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. A SMALL CLOUD SWIRL...WITH MODEST ATTENDANT CONVECTION...IS ROTATING WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB CORRESPOND TO 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS A BIT GENEROUS. WHILE THE CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...A LONGER-TERM REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS 285/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND A LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A SLOWER...MORE NORTHWARD TRACK SHOULD DEVELOP. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE RIGHT OUTLIER...THE GFDN...AND ONE LEFT OUTLIER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC UNTIL THE CORE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING THIS SHEAR TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM SURVIVES...AND IT SHOULD GIVEN ITS LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THERE WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS. IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BY DAY 4...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 13.3N 107.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 14.2N 109.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 14.9N 110.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 15.6N 110.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:58 UTC