ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME BUT THERE ARE SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED RAINBANDS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO INDUCING A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD BEGIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM JUST FORMED AND THERE IS NOT A GOOD HISTORY OF THE TRACK. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...BUT BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS INDICATED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LETS SEE WHEN WE GET THE FIRST RUN OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 12.7N 105.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.5N 107.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 108.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 14.3N 109.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.5N 111.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 115.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:58 UTC