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Tropical Storm COSME


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007               
1500 UTC WED JUL 18 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   1(14)
BUOY 50004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BUOY 50002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1407W 34 40   3(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 12 154N 1407W 50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 154N 1407W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 159N 1433W 34  1  17(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 24 159N 1433W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 159N 1433W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 164N 1461W 34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 164N 1461W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 164N 1461W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 168N 1492W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 48 168N 1492W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 168N 1492W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 175N 1555W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 175N 1555W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 175N 1555W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 180N 1610W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 96 180N 1610W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 180N 1610W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 180N 1660W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
120 180N 1660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 180N 1660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      30      30      30      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC