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Tropical Storm COSME


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BUOY 50002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1341W 34 92   3(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 154N 1341W 50 21   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 154N 1341W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 157N 1361W 34  2  56(58)   7(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 24 157N 1361W 50  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 157N 1361W 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 162N 1386W 34  X   2( 2)  30(32)   7(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 36 162N 1386W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 162N 1386W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 168N 1414W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 48 168N 1414W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 168N 1414W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 180N 1470W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 72 180N 1470W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 180N 1470W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 190N 1530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
 96 190N 1530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 96 190N 1530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 195N 1585W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
120 195N 1585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 195N 1585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     45      40      35      35      35      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC