ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007 WHILE COSME CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH TOPS TO -80C IN A CLUSTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT UNTIL THE CONVECTION SHOWS SOME PERSISTENCE. AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT OVERPASS MAY PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF COSME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF NOW CALL MORE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR A TRACK THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE CCON CONSENSUS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF THE CURRENT CONVECTION PERSISTS...THIS COULD ALLOW COSME TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ONLY MODEL THAT FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS THE GFDL. AFTER 72 HR...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH COULD CAUSE WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD ALLOW COSME TO MISS THAT AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ASSUMING THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST AND CALLING FOR COSME TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.1N 136.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.2N 138.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.6N 140.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.2N 143.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.7N 146.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 152.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 157.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 161.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC