ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007 AFTER GOING THROUGH AN ORGANIZATIONAL LULL THIS MORNING...COSME HAS RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON. A DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER 1434 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE AROUND 60 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND COSME HAS A SMALL EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING FULLY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/10. THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS STEERING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT FASTER AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT THE MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING. COSME'S INTENSITY COULD BE PEAKING...SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BELOW 26C AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE THROUGH DAY FIVE...AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ONE BIT OF TRIVIA...ONLY FOUR OTHER EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASONS HAVE HAD THEIR FIRST HURRICANE FORM LATER THAN COSME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.5N 131.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.9N 132.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 134.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.6N 137.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 139.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 19.0N 157.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC