ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED SHORTLY AFTER 06Z HAS PERSISTED... BUT IT HAS BEEN POORLY ORGANIZED AND ESSENTIALLY CONFINED TO A CLUSTER ANCHORED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AT 12Z WERE 1.0 AND 1.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE CYCLONE IS HEADED TOWARD COOLER WATERS...PROBABLY LESS THAN 25 CELSIUS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND THE WIND SHEAR MIGHT INCREASE A LITTLE TOO...SO THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS RELATIVELY SMALL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MEET ITS ULTIMATE DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHEN IT OR ITS REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE MUCH LARGER TD 6-E CURRENTLY SITUATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. TD 5-E APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 285/12 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BASED ON GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E OVERPASS AT 0930Z. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TD 6-E TO THE SOUTH. THAT WESTERLY MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 16.8N 119.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.2N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0000Z 17.2N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC