ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOOKS QUITE SICK. ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LOW CLOUD LINES INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HAVING SAID THAT...THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND STILL HAS TONIGHT'S DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AHEAD OF IT. ONE MORE BURST OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE DEPRESSION ENTERING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR...COLD WATER...AND STABLE AIR TOMORROW. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION...TRACKING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/12. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.9N 117.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 118.9W 25 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.3N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC