ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007 FOLLOWING AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. WHILE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS PROVIDED LITTLE ASSISTANCE IN DETERMINING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...A 0322Z TRMM PASS AND A 0130Z QUIKSCAT PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...AT BEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LOSING THE LITTLE STEAM IT HAD. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE CHANCE FOR IT TO INTENSIFY TO A STORM HAS ESSENTIALLY DIMINISHED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WEAKENS THE DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...THE DISSIPATING PROCESS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS CAUSED A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL EAST- PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE...OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT...IS STEERED TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.7N 112.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 113.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 115.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.1N 116.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC