Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007
 
FOLLOWING AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT.  WHILE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS PROVIDED LITTLE ASSISTANCE IN DETERMINING THE CENTER
CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...A 0322Z TRMM PASS AND A 0130Z QUIKSCAT
PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...AT BEST.  

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LOSING THE LITTLE STEAM IT HAD. 
SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CYCLONE...AND THE CHANCE FOR IT TO INTENSIFY TO A STORM HAS
ESSENTIALLY DIMINISHED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...IN
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WEAKENS THE
DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER IF THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...THE DISSIPATING PROCESS COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS CAUSED A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL EAST-
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE...OR
WHAT'S LEFT OF IT...IS STEERED TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS OR
SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF
MODELS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 17.7N 112.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N 113.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 115.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.1N 116.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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