Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
800 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007
 
AFTER FADING EARLIER...A NEW BALL OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE
DEPRESSION.  THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS NEW BURST OF
CONVECTION.  THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THIS
SYSTEM POSSIBLY HAVING MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE.  HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTED BY A 2034Z AQUA MICROWAVE
PASS...SO THE DEPRESSION IS REPOSITIONED POLEWARD ON THIS PACKAGE.

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DEPRESSION ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM-STRENGTH.  THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE DEPRESSION HAS CROSSED THE 79F ISOTHERM WITH
COOLER WATERS NOT FAR AWAY.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
PERHAPS WITH HELP FROM THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER IN
LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 315/9.  A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS TEMPORARILY CAUSING A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INITIATING THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE WEAKNESS FILLS IN TOMORROW AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS...WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD TURN.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE CENTER
RELOCATION...BUT IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 17.3N 111.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 112.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 18.7N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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