Tropical Depression ALVIN

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
0900 UTC THU MAY 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 129N 1160W 34 18   5(23)   1(24)   2(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 12 129N 1160W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 129N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 127N 1168W 34  6   7(13)   4(17)   2(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 24 127N 1168W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 127N 1168W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 126N 1174W 34  1   6( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 36 126N 1174W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 126N 1174W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 124N 1180W 34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   1(15)   1(16)
 48 124N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 124N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 120N 1190W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 72 120N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 120N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 110N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 96 110N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 110N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 100N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 100N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 100N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      25      25      20      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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