Tropical Depression ALVIN

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
2100 UTC WED MAY 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 135N 1155W 34  8   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 12 135N 1155W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 135N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 135N 1164W 34  3   7(10)   5(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 24 135N 1164W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 135N 1164W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 134N 1173W 34  X   6( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 36 134N 1173W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 134N 1173W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 131N 1182W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 48 131N 1182W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 131N 1182W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 125N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 72 125N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 125N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 117N 1207W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 96 117N 1207W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 117N 1207W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 105N 1225W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 105N 1225W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 105N 1225W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     25      25      25      20      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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